NextGen Project Risk Management Course

Risk and uncertainty are ubiquitous in today’s organizations. They influence every major executive and managerial decision. It is paramount to understand them to make the right decisions and achieve successful outcomes. Many organizations have recently adopted risk registers and qualitative methods to manage their project risks. While these methods are a first step, there is a strong need for more sophisticated tools. More effective strategies are needed to estimate and manage project costs, schedules, and contingencies.

Quantitative analysis of cost and schedule risk can help us identify and implement better risk response actions. Project NPV (net present value) models involving risk and uncertainty analysis and other decision tools can be of great value in selecting the right projects in the first place. Furthermore, advanced methods are warranted in identifying the right combination of projects for the project portfolios. The primary objective of this course is to provide you with next generation risk management tools for effective project and portfolio management.

The course is presented in a workshop format involving hands-on activities. It consists of mini-lectures, interactive discussions, and team-based exercises and case studies. Quantitative methods presented in this course involve Excel based applications. You will be provided with various spreadsheet models designed to quantify and analyze project risks and uncertainty.

You will learn how to use Microsoft Corporation’s Project and Palisade Corporation’s  DecisionTools  Suitefor risk management and decision analysis. You are required to bring your own laptop to the classroom. You are encouraged to download trial versions of the afore-mentioned commercial tools, unless you already have licensed access to them.

The course instructor will demonstrate each spreadsheet model using an example problem. You will learn the models through hands-on application. The class size will be limited, so that personal attention may be given to each participant in helping with the hands-on application exercises.

Key Benefits

  • Recognize the importance of risk analysis in project and portfolio management
  • Identify four specific strategies to manage project risks
  • Define uncertainty and risk
  • Analyze uncertainty and risk using quantitative methods
  • Apply risk and uncertainty analysis to NPV models
  • Adjust the discount rate in accordance with project risk
  • Apply stochastic methods for cost and schedule estimation
  • Understand various types of probability distributions and their importance in simulations
  • Use Monte Carlo methods for project NPV, cost, and schedule analysis
  • Estimate project cost and schedule contingencies based on stochastic analysis
  • Apply various decision tools in project and portfolio management
  • Optimize a project portfolio using advanced deterministic and stochastic methods to select the right combination of projects

You Will Receive

  • 22.5 PDU’s from PMI
  • Dr. Kodukula’s book Project Valuation Using Real Options: A Practitioner’s Guide(Coauthor: Chandra Papudesu)
  • A participant guide with workshop slides, exercises, and case studies
  • Soft copies of the slides, case study exercises, and exercise solutions
  • Spreadsheet models for quantitative risk analysis

Course Outline

1. Risk Fundamentals

    • Definitions of risk and uncertainty
    • Risk register
    • Qualitative risk analysis
    • Risk management strategies
    • Tools and techniques to analyze uncertainty

2. Financial Modeling

    • Time value of money
    • Building blocks of financial models
    • NPV/discounted cash flow models
    • Discount rate dilemma

3. Estimation

    • Rolling wave planning
    • Different levels of estimation: Cost, schedule, resources
    • Cost tunnel
    • Scheduling tools

4. Simulations

    • Measures of variability
    • Probability types
    • Probability distributions
    • Role of distributions in simulations
    • Monte Carlo methods

5. Applications of Monte Carlo Methods

    • NPV/discounted cash flow analysis
    • Project cost risk
    • Project schedule risk
    • Estimation of cost and schedule contingencies
    • Sensitivity analysis
    • Tornado diagrams

6. Decision Analysis Tools

    • Decision trees
    • Weighted scoring models
    • Multi-criteria decision analysis
    • Analytic hierarchy process
    • Real options analysis
    • Biases in decision making

7. Portfolio Optimization

    • NPV ranking
    • Efficient frontier
    • Deterministic optimization
    • Stochastic optimization
  • Program Management Professionals (PgMP®s)
  • Project Management Professionals (PMP®s)
  • Portfolio Management Professionals (PfMP®s)
  • Portfolio Managers
  • Program Managers
  • Project Managers
  • Financial analysts
  • Risk specialists
  • PMO staff
  • Project decision makers
  • Other relevant managers & executives

kodukula

Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula, PMP, PgMP

  • 30 years of professional experience
  • Clients include 40 Fortune 100 companies (e.g., Abbott Labs, Boeing, BP, Chrysler, Cisco, Corning, Dow, IBM, Motorola, Sprint), the United States government, United Nations, and the World Bank
  • Co-founder & CEO, of 2Ci, recognized as the “Most Innovative Environmental Technology Company in Illinois”
  • Co-founder & President of Neochloris, Inc., a green tech company in biofuel space
  • Spoke in 40 countries
  • Co-author or contributing author of eight books and more than 50 technical articles

Note:  His full professional Biography is available on request.

Venue:

Holiday Inn Hotel, Sandton – Johannesburg

Dates:

To Be Announced

Course Prices and Discounts can be viewed after registration.

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